Friday, January 25, 2013
Bill Ackman was on CNBC today to talk about Herbalife and refute some of the claims made by Carl Icahn. Surprisingly while Bill Ackman is on the air Carl Icahn releases a press-release and calls into CNBC to have a live on air chat with Bill Ackman. Carl Icahn resorts to a little bit of name calling and enjoyable TV ensues.
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Michael Price was on Bloomberg recently discussing his view on the market and what stocks he is getting excited about. He thinks McGraw-Hill post education spin will be interesting and he also thinks FXCM can double as trading volumes and spreads pick up. He goes on to discuss his opinion on Goldman Sachs and Citigroup. He then goes on to give his thoughts on the pending DELL buyout. Enjoy.
Greenlight Capital recently posted their Q4 2012 letter (hat tip to Marketfolly for quickly posting). For the year they ended up 7.9% net with (4.9%) in Q4. Since inception (1996) Greenlight has returned 19.4% annually (impressive stuff to say the least). In the letter they disclose that they were hurt by Iron Ore Shorts, the rally in Green Mountain, and the poor performance by Apple. They also disclosed that they continue to be bearish on the Yen (sharing Kyle Bass's thesis). He also continued to reiterate his bullish thesis on both MRVL and VOD. Enjoy. Greenlight-Capital-Q4-2012
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
In the video he discloses that Appaloosa was up 30% last year. He also says that Appaloosa is quite bullish in the coming days. He thinks the macro economic environment is poised for 2%-3% growth. He thinks there wont be a debt ceiling fight and there is no real other choice out there and he thinks people are massively underweight equities at present both at the institutional level and the retail level. He thinks the country is on the verge of an explosion of greatness. He then discusses how Appaloosa got started and what it was like in the early days. He went on to discuss his thesis in Citigroup and that he thinks it has 50% upside from its current levels. He then discussed how active they have been in the distressed space and how he thinks right now the time is to be long and there is a good chance to be up nicely this year by just being long equities. Specifically he says its time to be long contrarian plays not the risk assets like treasuries, bunds, etc., he thinks its time to be long equities. You want to be long the risky plays not the risk averse plays. He mentions low corporate debt great debt to income service ratios and corporate P/Es that are dead low as reasons to be bullish equities. He then went on to discuss some of their largest holdings. Overall it was a fairly interesting segment. Enjoy.
Friday, January 18, 2013
Kyle Bass was on CNBC today discussing his short on Japan. He says the signs are already there that folks exiting the JPY - with recent M&A transactions. 20% of exports go to China; this could be halved given the tensions, and a JPY devaluation is not going to restore the competitiveness of that secular decline. He thinks the people buying Japanese stocks on the recent rally are buying dimes in front of a bull-dozer.
Thursday, January 17, 2013
Jim Chanos was interviewed by Robert Wolf on Reuters's Impact Players. In the video Jim Chanos discusses what he looks for in short candidates - accounting trickery, large executive stock sales (not just one but a mass exodus), and companies that are impacted dramatically by technological change. He then goes on to discuss his opinion on Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ). He is short the entire PC space. He believes the issue with HPQ is that they didn't properly invest in R&D and their product line got stale. He briefly talks about the Herbalife situation and the multi-level-marketing space as a whole but unfortunately doesn't indicate if they are long or short, just mentioning they have deeply looked at the sector (to me this likely means they are short some names in the space). He then went on to discuss his opinion on China and why he is short. He then goes on to discuss what he views as the five most important financial frauds of all time. Overall pretty interesting stuff. Enjoy.
Friday, January 11, 2013
Mohnish Pabrai the manager of Pabrai Funds recently sat down with Motley Fool to discuss what he learned with Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger during some of his private sit downs he has had with them over the years. Aside from some pretty typical Buffett-esque and Munger-esque aphorisms he does interestingly provide some color on Rick Guerin who was mentioned in Buffett's super investor speech and hasn't been heard much of since. Enjoy.
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
Below please find Third Point Capital's Q4 2012 letter to investor. In the letter Daniel Loeb talks about their recent long position in Herbalife (NYSE:HLF) and how he thinks they could be worth $55 - $68 per share versus a recent close of $39.95 representing upside of 38% - 70%. It will be interesting to see how this plays out since Pershing Square and Bill Ackman are vocally on the opposite side of this (self reporting some 20 million shares shorted and think its going to $0!). For the year they ended up 21.2% (not too shabby). With 9.2% of that coming in Q4. They also go on to discuss their new long psotiions in Tesoro and Morgan Stanley. As usual its a very interesting letter and well worth the read. Enjoy. Loeb HLF
Howard Marks the founder of Oaktree Capital Management is out with his latest letter. In the letter he discusses how people are aware of a number of the risks that are currently present in the market but due to the ZIRP they are being forced to participate in more speculaitve markets in order to get increasingly diminishing returns. He goes on to say this is clearly a time for caution. He goes on to make a play of the famous adage, "what the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.” The wise man invested aggressively in late 2008 and early 2009. I believe only the fool is doing so now. He advices investors to use caution and pick investmetns wisely always being mindful of risk. Enjoy. Howard Marks
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Today Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine gave a presentation on what he expects to see in 2013. The presentation entilted, "Year of the Snake" is embedded below. There are lots of good charts in the presentation reviewing 2012 as well as giving hints at what they expect going forward. He talks about the pending impact of the debt ceiling and how the recent fiscal cliff decision will impact GDP growth. Overall lots of good data and charts but not a ton of actionable predictions. Although it is clear that Jeff is concerned with Japan, the US fiscal situation, and the strenght of the dollar given the money printing policies. Enjoy. gundlach prez 2013
Wednesday, January 2, 2013
Below is Grant's Interest Rate Observer's Winter Break 2012 Highlights. They put together a semi-annual compilation of their best articles throughout the year (one in the summer and one in the winter). Enjoy. Grants Interest Rate Observer