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Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Third Point Capital Q2 2013 Letter to Investors

Dan Loeb and Third Point Capital are out with their Q2 2013 letter to investors. In the letter he discloses that Third Point is up 12.6% YTD versus 13.8% for the S&P 500. While Dan Loeb has done a truly amazing job keeping up with the market it is hard to outperform a one-way market when you remain hedged. But fret not, his performance since inception is still a jaw dropping 17.8% versus 6.6% for the S&P 500. In the letter he discloses that he sold his gold positions in Q2 due to their seeing greenshoots and believing that the Fed may potentially initiate rising rates in the not too distant future (gold would obviously not perform well in this scenario). He goes on to give a rather scathing review of the Sony position discussing the progress to date and his (appropriate) disappointments. He goes on to make the case for why their suggestion of spinning off the entertainment division would unlock value. He then discloses that they recently initiated a new position in CF Industries. He believes that under onerous assumptions (for natural gas pricing and price per ton of nitrogen fertilizer) CF would still generate around $1.2B in cash flow implying that it is currently trading at an 11% free-cash-flow yield. He suggests buying back shares and issuing a dividend as a way to unlock additional value with CF's copious cashflow (which is growing due to their U.S. natural gas cost positioning). Finally he briefly talks about the Yahoo! position, and how they agreed to sell back 2/3rds of their position to Yahoo! and have achieved an IRR of 50% on those shares since initiating the position. Enjoy.

Friday, July 26, 2013

Greenlight Capital 2013 Q2 Letter to Investors

David Einhorn is out with his Q2 Letter to investor today. YTD they are up 7.1% YTD. In the letter he walks through their bullish thesis on GM, AAPL, VOYA, and others. He then goes on to walk through a number of closed positions in the quarter and briefly highlights their original thesis showing how it either has or has not played out. At quarter end the largest positions were Apple, General Motors, Gold, Marvell Technology, Oil States International, and Vodafone Group. Greenlight ended the quarter 109% long and 63% short. Enjoy:

Greenlight Capital Q2 2013 shareholder letter

Mario Gabelli on Bloomberg TV

Mario Gabelli was on Bloomberg TV today giving his opinion on a couple of his holdings as well as the market overall. He continued to reiterate his bullishness on the consolidation of the cable providers. Further he went on to discuss his bullish stance on General Mills, Post, and Hillshire Brands. Enjoy.

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Crispin Odey interview

Crispin Odey the founder of Odey Asset Management recently sat down with Mick Gilligan for an interview. In the interview he discusses his views on the markets as well as a couple of larger comments on his funds. He then singles out Delta (DAL) as a potentially interesting idea and thinks the stock can triple over the next three years. Enjoy.

Thursday, July 18, 2013

John Paulson interview at Delivering Alpha Conference

Yesterday John Paulson sat down for his first ever television interview at the Delivering Alpha Conference. In the video he discusses his bet on gold (even though he points out how as a percentage of AUM gold is a relatively unimportant bet as gold is only 2% of AUM), how he is very bullish on housing/real estate and thinks that we are at the beginning of another 7 year up cycle, he mentions that he is long Realogy (RLGY) and owns about 9% of it, and he finishes up talking a bit about his risk arbitrage legacy and how he thinks the market can start to consolidate. Enjoy:

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Nelson Peltz's Tiran Management Presentation on Pepsi Co

Below please find the full presentation that Nelson Peltz spoke about at today's Delivering Alpha Conference where he suggested that Pepsi acquires Mondelez for $35 in stock. Trian-Partners-PepsiCo

Nelson Peltz at Delivering Alpha Conference

Nelson Peltz was at the Delivering Alpha Conference today where it was revealed that he was amassing a big stake in DuPont. Additionally he went on to explain his investment thesis in Pepsi (of which he owns $1.5B) and Mondelez (of which he owns around $1.4B). He wants Pepsi to buy Mondelez for around $35 per share. Here is an abbreviated highlight reel: Here is the full interview with Nelson Peltz (some 20 minutes):

Jim Chanos at Delivering Alpha Conference on Why he's Short Caterpillar

Today CNBC and Institutional investor hosted their annual Delivering Alpha Conference. At the conference Jim Chanos delivered his thesis on why he is short Caterpillar. His net thesis is that 30% of their revenue comes from global mining capex and 50% of their operating profit. With China slowing down this will really impair the commodity supercylce and hurt mining capex. Mining capex is going to come down fast and he thinks Caterpillar will bear the brunt of this. He goes on to share that he is still short Hewlett-Packard and he thinks the stock has had a huge run on the perception that it is a turnaround. He doesn't buy into the turnaround thesis. He thinks HP's revenues are declining 10% annually across the board - including services. He thinks this goes onto show that there is an issue with the tech services industry as cloud computing will have major impacts.

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Whitney Tilson's Kase Capital Q2 2013 Letter to Investors

Whitney Tilson is out with his Q2 2012 letter to investors. For the year his fund, Kase Capital, is up 8.7% vs the S&P 500's rise of 13.8% and 15.2% for the Dow. In the rather lengthy letter he rehashes his logic for a couple of their main positions: AIG, Berkshire Hathaway, Delia's, Hertz, InterOil, Spark Networks, etc. Enjoy:

Kase Capital Fund Ltr to Investors-Q2 13 Whitney Tilson

Kyle Bass / Hayman Capital June 2013 Letter to Investors

Below please find Hayman Capital's June 2013 letter to investors. In the letter, Kyle Bass talks about his updated thoughts on the Japanese market given the recent pull backs and he also sheds some light on the recently revealed news that he is also short China. It is interesting reading as always. Enjoy:

Hayman Japan Update_June 2013 (FINAL) Kyle Bass China

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Mario Gabelli on CNBC

Mario Gabelli was on CNBC today sharing his opinion on the economy, stock market, and particular names he currently likes.

He makes a case for small cap stocks being an interesting target for M&A interest from larger companies trying to counteract anemic topline growth.  He reiterates what Leon Cooperman has said in that bonds look overvalued and are not a space he wants to spend time in given the inherent risks.  He thinks the US is strong but advises that it would be foolish to ignore the bargains around the world.  The three big areas he sees opportunities now are: housing, fracking, and commercial aviation. In this video he talks about a couple companies that he views as good acquisition targets.  Navistar is a company he thinks is a good takeover target.  Hillshire Brands is another company he thinks will get taken over due to their strong portfolio of consumer food brands and he thinks it could be worth in the $40 - $50 range vs a price today of approx. $33.50.  He thinks they are continuing to work on a turnaround and should be able to clean up the operations and get acquired in the next 24 months. Finally he thinks that Post is a good acquisition target post its spin-off.  He really likes the CEO at Post and thinks that with only a $1.5B market cap they are ripe for the taking.

In this video he talks about his favorite bank stocks.  He really likes Legg Mason and Cohen & Steers.

In the final video Mario Gabelli talks about his favorite current pick which is Davide Campari-Milano.  He thinks its a great company but because they are majority family owned will not be a takeout candidate anytime soon.