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This blog is an effort to sift through the noise. Please note that a number of resources are used to create these theses and due to an overriding desire to think rather than edit I will not be citing every little source.
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Thursday, October 25, 2012
Hugh Hendry and David Einhorn at the Economist's Buttonwood Gathering
Hugh Hendry was at the Economist's Buttonwood Gathering today. In the video below he talks about how he is long gold and short gold miners.
He also goes into a detailed discussion on his view on China and Japan.
At around 55 minutes into the video David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital comes on to talk about the current inflationary environment.
Overall the video is long but its well worth watching.
Enjoy.
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital's Q3 2012 Letter
Below please find Greenlight Capital's Q3 2012 letter to investors. For the quarter David Einhorn and friends returned 9.4% bringing their performance to up 13.2% for the year.
In the letter he talks about his bullish position on Gold due to the Fed's unending QE process ($40B per month). They also offer additonal detail on their Green Mountain Coffee Roasters short (GMCR), their General Motors long (GM), their Cigna long (CI), and their Chipotle Mexican Grill short (CMG).
Enjoy.
Greenlight Capital - 2012.10.23
Julian Robertson on CNBC
Julian Robertson was on CNBC yesterday discussing his view on the economy as well as some specfic stocks. He thinks right now is a stock picker's market. He highlights Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Ryanair Holdings plc (NASDAQ:RYAAY), Rolls-Royce (LSE:RR), CapitalOne (NYSE:COF), and Ocwen Financial (NYSE:OCN). He thinks the steel companie are way overvalued: AK Steel (NYSE:AKS), US Steel (NYSE:X), and Japanese steels are priced for a real take-off economy which he doesn't expect.
He then goes on to talk about his support for Mitt Romney for President.
He briefly mentioned Facebook but said he didn't know enough to have a real position. He talks about his exposure to Chase Coleman's Tiger Global that was able to invest in Facebook years ago as a private company.
Enjoy.
Monday, October 22, 2012
Keving Byun - Denali Investors's presentation on Shaw Group
Below please find Kevin Byun's and Denali Investors's presentation on Shaw Group.
They make the case that Shaw's deal with CBI at $46 per share is leaving substantial value on the table. They think Shaw is worth $50 to $70 per share as a going concern and $60 to $85 per share with an adequate control premium.
Overall they make a strong argument. They have even set up a website to keep folks posted on their activist progress - http://www.shawfairvalue.com/
Enjoy.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Stephen Siderow Co-Founder of BlueMountain Capital on Bloomberg
Stephen Siderow, co-founder of BlueMountain Capital Management was on Bloomberg today talking about investing in corporate structured debt and his strategy for the asset class. He said one investment theme they are looking at is the broader de-risking that investment banks are looking for and that he is willing to trade against.
Enjoy.
Monday, October 15, 2012
Bruce Berkowitz of Fairholme Fund on Wealthtrack
Bruce Berkowitz founder of the Fairholme found was on Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack last week discussing his concentration on financial stocks as well has his contrarion bent. Berkowitz now has 36% of his portfolio in AIG and 11% on Sears Holding.
He goes on to make his case for a number of holdings. Overall its nothing new but worth listening to.
Enjoy.
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Fall 2012 Issue of Graham & Doddsville
Columbia Business School's CSIMA is out with their Fall 2012 issue of Graham & Doddsville. In this issue they interivew Joel Greenblatt, Jim Tisch (CEO of Loews), and the investment team of Royce & Associates (Charlie Dreifus, Chuck Royce, Buzz Zaino, and Whitney George).
As usual its interesting to read in-depth interviews with great investors like Joel Greenblatt, Jim Tisch, and Chuck Royce.
Enjoy.
Graham _ Doddsville - Issue 16 - Fall 2012_vFINAL2
Friday, October 5, 2012
Bill Ackman of Pershing Square on CNBC
Bill Ackman of Pershing Square was on CNBC today discussing his views on GGP (basically a rehash of what he talked about at the Value Investing Congress). He goes on to discuss his opinon on JC Penneys (JCP) Procter & Gamble (PG) and gave some more hints about his newest short - saying when it goes out of business it is good for america.
Enjoy.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Daniel Loeb's Third Point Capital Q3 2012 Letter
Attached please find Third Point Capital's Q3 2012 Letter to investors. In the letter they walk through their investment thesis on Murphy Oil (MUR) and AIG (AIG).
Enjoy!
Third Point Capital - 2012.10.03
Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital on CNBC
Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital was on CNBC today discussing debt balances throughout the world. He thinks neither side of the U.S. government will act and that will cause a further increase in the problem. They disclosed they are long a large amount of MBS securities and own around 1% of the market. He thinks housing will flatten out - he doesn't think housing will go up but it will stabilize. They also own a number of event driven situations in credit and equity and they hedge these situations with options as he believes black-scholes massively misprices convexity. He reiterates taht he thinks the most upside down market with the greatest potential is in Japan.
Enjoy.
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Presentations from Value Investing Congress
Hat tip to Marketfolly for posting all the presentations from the Value Investing Congress.
Enjoy:
Zack Buckley (Buckley Capital) - Short Splunk (SPLK)
Buckley-VIC-Presentation
Kian Ghazi (Hawkshawk Capital) - Long Layne Christensen (LAYN) Ghazi-VIC-Presentation
Whitney Tilson (T2 Partners) - Long Netflix (NFLX), Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB), and Howard Hughes Corp (HHC) Tilson-VIC-Presentation
John Mauldin (Millennium Wave)- Discussion of Long-term Trends Mauldin-VIC-Presentation
Bill Ackman (Pershing Square) - Long GGP Ackman-VIC-Presentation
Kian Ghazi (Hawkshawk Capital) - Long Layne Christensen (LAYN) Ghazi-VIC-Presentation
Whitney Tilson (T2 Partners) - Long Netflix (NFLX), Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB), and Howard Hughes Corp (HHC) Tilson-VIC-Presentation
John Mauldin (Millennium Wave)- Discussion of Long-term Trends Mauldin-VIC-Presentation
Bill Ackman (Pershing Square) - Long GGP Ackman-VIC-Presentation
Monday, October 1, 2012
JANA Partners Presentation on Agrium
Barry Rosenstein spoke at the Value Investing Congress earlier today where he discussed their position in Agrium (AGU). In the presentation (see below) they disclose that JANA engaged with the management team back in May to discuss steps to realize the hidden value of the retail portion of the business. They lay out five ways Agrium can immediately increase value:
1. Committing to larger and more consistent return of capital going forward
2. Improving disclosure in Retail
3. Initiating a working capital and operational cost reduction plan in Retail
4. Rationalizing unallocated corporate overhead
5. Pursuing a separation of Retail and Wholesale
When all is said and done they think there is $50 worth of potential value creation resulting in a ~ $150 stock price versus $100 today.
Overall its pretty good analysis and reasonably compelling - especially given Jana's track record.
Enjoy:
Jana Partners - Unlocking Agrium's True Value - 2012.10.01
Michael Price on Bloomberg
Michael Price was on Bloomberg recently discussing his bullish stance on Apple (AAPL) and JCP (JC Penney's). He goes on to talk about Citi, JPM, and various other financials. He also thinks headcount on Wall Street will continue to drop.
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