This blog is an effort to sift through the noise. Please note that a number of resources are used to create these theses and due to an overriding desire to think rather than edit I will not be citing every little source.
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Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Jeffrey Ubben of ValueAct Capital on CNBC
Jeffrey Ubben the head of ValueAct Capital was on CNBC yesterday being interviewed about his presence at the 4th Annual Active-Passive Investor Summit. At the conference he disclosed that his firm had taken a $2B stake in Miscrosoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). In the video Jeffrey walks through his firms strategy of how they are long-term activists effectively partnering with their companies to create value over the long-term. He talks through his brief thesis on Motorola Solutions (NYSE: MSI) and how he thinks there is a 5-year opportunity to compound at 20%.
Additionally, here is when CNBC breaks ValueAct's $2B position:
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
John Taylor on Bloomberg TV
John Taylor of FX Concepts was on Bloomberg TV yesterday talking about gold an bitcoins. He said he was close to being a buyer in gold and thinks we are near a low. He thinks gold will stabalize in the $1,250 - $1,400 range so its in the range as present. John Taylor thinks we have passed the peak and are headed towards a less the awesome second half. He thinks the dollar is the currency to be in for the remainder of the year and the Euro will weaken against the dollar.
Enjoy.
Thursday, April 11, 2013
Sam Zell on CNBC
Sam Zell was on CNBC yesterday where he was joined by David Rosenberg. They both agreed that insanity is currently engulfing U.S. equities and that its clear that the driver behind the market's rise is not the economy (as indicated by poor ISM reading, jobs numbers, and worse NFIB data) but the Fed proping up the market and debasing the currency. Sam Zell says he is not increasing his position in the stock market and that its not a bad idea to sit on the sidelines right now - he then went on to say the stock market felt like the housing market did in 2006. He makes the analogy stronger by talking about how the markets bullish sentiment and uni-directional pull is similar to what was occuring in housing in 2006. Interesting stuff... enjoy.
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
Third Point Capital's Q1 2013 Letter to Investors
Daniel Loeb and his Third Point Capital are out with their Q1 2013 letter to investors. In the quarter they returned 9% versus the S&P 500's 10.6%. In the letter they discuss their short position in the Japanese Yen, their position in International Paper (IP), and their position in Liberty Global(LBTYA). As usual the letter is well worth reading. Enjoy.
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Kyle Bass on Bloomberg
Kyle Bass was on Bloomberg today discussing his Japan trade and his thoughts on Gold. I found it interesting that Kyle was perplexed on how low gold is considering. I also like the quote from Kyle on when they were discussing George Soros's recent move away from gold, "George has been a much better investor than I over the years. When you think about the global monetary base, it is north of $70 trillion. All the gold in existence is around $7-8 trillion. There might be $1.2-1.3 trillion of investable gold. At some point in time, I would much rather would own gold than paper. I just don't know when that time is." His whole thesis is gold is another currency and should do well as the global environment prints itself into oblivion. I tend to agree with this sentiment and personally do not view gold as a commodity but merely a reflection on various currencies.
Enjoy.
Kyle Bass on CNBC
Kyle Bass was recently on CNBC discussing his opinion on the recent moves by the BoJ. Japan is going through a giant experiment in doubling their monetary base in two years. He thinks its interesting that they abondoned the bank note rule since the BoJ is now monetizing more debt than exists in the system, so the BoJ is buying assets at a rate of 75% of the US Fed but the Japanese economy is only 1/3 the size of the U.S. He thinks its very important to not be long Yen and not be long Japanese equities as the Japanese industrial complex has been hollowed out and he thinks it will end badly. He thinks Japan will start to buy foreign bonds and when they do that it will start an implicit trade war. Japan's declining population, hollowed industry, and living tax increase in 2014 it will likely move nominal GDP higher but this is not the panacea that everyone thinks it will be. He thinks they need to get the Yen/USD to 118-120 in order to hit their GDP targets. He thinks this is a dangerous game and is further protracted by other central banks across the world playing a similar currency war / rate targeting game.
George Soros Recent Interviews
George Soros recently gave two interviews where he discussed his view on the global economic situation. He relates that Europe is that last bastion of orthodoxy and they are racing towards a situation that is similar to what Japan has been trying to escape for the past 25 years. He then goes on to discuss the Japanese situation and gives a warning that the Japanese better watch out since if they are successful in stimulating inflation he is not entirely sure they can stop it once it gets started. As the Yen begins to fall, which it already has, the people in Japan will start to realize that it is liable to continue and that they will quickly try to move their money abroad in order to protect their purchasing power - this exodus can quickly turn the fall of the Yen into an avalanche.
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